Thoughts by Victor Tran, CEO, Kyber Network
Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of Victor Tran, CEO of Kyber Network, and does not reflect the official position of Kyber Network. It is important to note that this content is not intended as financial advice. Your investment choices are your own, and Kyber Network holds no responsibility for any potential losses you might experience.
This is the first time I’m sharing a market assessment from the perspective of a co-founder/CEO, rather than a trader. I’ve made it a bit detailed so that those of you, especially interested builders, can gain a deeper understanding of my viewpoint.
At Kyber, we hold several core values, and one that stands out is TRANSPARENCY. It’s a value so potent and distinct that even without a formal promotion program, both internal and external stakeholders can sense it.
In the world of Blockchain/Crypto, transparency is deeply ingrained, thanks to the open-source culture. Kyber, too, breathes this ethos. We believe that the more transparent we are, the more we’ll garner community support. This transparency compels us to act authentically, making genuine contributions because, in transparency, nothing can be falsified.
As a founder or C-level executive, crafting a strategy is pivotal. It involves leveraging experience, thinking, assumptions, beliefs, and assessments to devise a series of plans to achieve your goals. This strategy impacts myriad decisions within the company—budget, product, marketing, human resources, and more.
Typically, companies guard their strategies to prevent theft or competition. However, in our realm, openness is part of our DNA. Devs at Kyber firmly believe that transparency not only attracts community help but also holds us accountable.
This post aligns with Kyber’s transparency culture. I’m sharing Kyber’s assessment, beliefs, and market bet for the next 30 weeks, along with why it’s significant for Kyber.
Now, let’s delve into the market evaluation based on intuition and experience. This is a critical aspect that cannot be overlooked. With my experience as a builder in this market since 2016, I’ve weathered two bear markets and two bull markets. I’ve seen the market at its most stagnant and its most frenzied.
The current sentiment in the market echoes that of the end of 2018 to the first half of 2019. It’s characterized by a sense of steady building while the market experiences small daily fluctuations. Mostly, the market is in a slow decline, with a prevailing sense that there’s nothing groundbreaking to pursue. Many companies from the previous bull era have faltered, losing communication and development momentum, primarily due to financial constraints.
Back then, we witnessed projects like Spankchain, and now we have tokenized OnlyFans (friendtech). The standout use case for Blockchain remains exchanges. Though this sentiment is hard to convey, it’s something we can only share. Fortunately, many at Kyber share this sentiment due to our long-standing journey together.
Looking at a bit of technical analysis, in early 2016, 30 weeks before the Bitcoin halving in July 2016, we saw similar patterns in the market as we do now. A pump in the market was met with a surge in RSI from 30 to 70, followed by a regression to nearly 50. The price, too, was nudged in the direction of the MA-50, setting the stage for a prolonged bull run. This is best visualized in Picture 1.
Similarly, at the end of 2019 and early 2020, preceding the halving in May 2020, we observed comparable trends. Once again, the market experienced an upswing, driving the RSI above 70, only to be met with a substantial dip, dragging it below 50. The price, similarly, dipped below the MA-50 before rebounding and initiating yet another protracted bull run, as illustrated in Picture 2.
A notable distinction between 2016 and 2019-2020 lies in the average MA-50 price. While the overall trend and shape bear resemblance, the MA-50 in 2019-2020 trails the price line, signifying a significant deviation from the scenario in 2016. This discrepancy can be attributed to the influence of the prior ICO era, which exerted substantial force, compelling the market to divest itself of USD. This, in turn, fortified companies with the capacity to maintain larger human resource allocations compared to the preceding period. It’s worth noting that 2018 presented a challenging phase for Kyber, necessitating the liquidation of a significant portion of our treasury as a precautionary measure. However, the subsequent bull period proved to be less robust than the one that followed the 2016 halving.
As of now, we stand at approximately 30 weeks prior to the upcoming Bitcoin halving period, which is illustrated in Figure 3. We’ve recently witnessed a surge that propelled us beyond the MA-50, only to be reined back in. The RSI, much like in the previous two waves, experienced a surge from 30 to 70, followed by a regression below 50 in the past 2-3 weeks. These indicators point towards a discernible path to recovery.
In summary, both the prevailing sentiment and the comprehensive technical analysis lend credence to the hypothesis that we may be on the cusp of a bull run even more formidable than the one that followed the 2019 halving. It’s conceivable that volatility may begin to assert itself with greater clarity around mid-2024. However, it’s imperative to remember that this is a highly subjective assessment, and one should refrain from adopting it wholesale without conducting their own due diligence.
A robust foundation is imperative for successful operations. This entails ensuring that our data systems are primed to handle the surge in daily operations without becoming a bottleneck. Additionally, our OKRs/KPIs tracking and bonus system must be calibrated to incentivize swift contributions from individuals. Our product must boast an array of features and a user experience that’s inviting to a new wave of users. It’s worth noting that the entry of new users hinges on the introduction of the existing user base, often referred to as ‘degens’.
KYBER’S NEXT STEPS
Regarding Kyber’s upcoming steps, the motto is “Bear – we build, Bull – we operation.” For successful operations, the foundation must be robust. This encompasses a ready data system, effective OKRs/KPIs tracking, and a product with enhanced features and UX. We’ll also be looking to rebalance our holdings, with a focus on reducing the proportion of USD-Stablecoins in our treasury, and augmenting our holdings in fundamental crypto assets.
Looking ahead to the culmination of 2025, our aim is to cap off a year characterized by robust profits, offsetting the burn rate of the 2021-2024 period. Consequently, 2023 and 2024 will need to be geared towards reducing net-burn, thereby alleviating the burden for 2025. Our revenue targets for 2023 and 2024 will play a pivotal role in this endeavor.
If you’ve read this far, you deserve respect! The dedication to learning and persevering is commendable. Perhaps you should consider joining us as a builder. It’s 5:30 a.m., and I’m wrapping up this post. Haha.
*Translated from Vietnamese. See original post here